What are the Odds?

McGinn fightThis week we are proud to announce our new partnership with our friends over at 3D Philly Sports, who will be chatting with us from time to time. You should check them out over at www.3DPhillySports.com and on Facebook.

So, with the Flyers’ season under way, we decided to ask them some questions about the orange and black. Here’s what Dan Schmidt of 3D had to say:

What are the odds… 

That Bryzgalov is top 5 goalie?

Bryz is playing phenomenal.  His save pct looks merely above average at .912, but that’s mostly due to a horrendous penalty kill where a lot of the goals aren’t his fault.  However, the defense in front of him isn’t very strong and that’s likely to keep his numbers down.  He’s been the Flyers best player, but traditional goalie stats are dependent on team defense, and this Flyers team doesn’t appear to be upper echelon in anything.

Odds: 35%

Catch the rest of the odds after the break…

That Tye McGinn remains on the Flyers’ roster at the end of the month?

Scott Hartnell isn’t going to be back before the end of the month, so McGinn stays.  And even if Hartnell comes back on Feb. 28th, I’d still say 80% chance McGinn remains on the roster.  This team needs offense and McGinn is creating havoc around the net constantly.  I’d dump Knuble before McGinn.

Odds: 100%

That the Flyers improve their penalty kill to the top half of the league?

They’re bottom 5 in the league at winning face-offs and they take more minor penalties than anyone in the NHL.  That means a lot of tired players who don’t have the puck on their sticks enough.  Probably going to be a problem area all year, but they can probably at least get back to middle of the pack.

Odds: 40%

That the Flyers regret the James van Riemsdyk for Luke Schenn deal at the end of the year?

I didn’t like this trade when they made it, I don’t like it now, so I probably won’t like it at the end of the year either.  Schenn has played some strong games recently, but its a small sample size and he was trending downward the past 2 years in Toronto.  He played against lesser and lesser competition on the Leafs getting 2nd and 3rd pair minutes (for the frickin Maple Leafs!)

Meanwhile, JVR has shown improvement pretty much every year.  His point-per-game avgs have gone up in each of his first 3 seasons, despite the quality of his linemates going from Richards, Carter, and Giroux to Simmonds, Voracek, and Brayden Schenn and I think the Flyers got scared off too easily by his injury-plagued season last year.  He definitely looks healthy this year with 8 goals in Toronto’s first 13 games.  He won’t keep that rate up, but 20-25 goals in 48 games from him wouldn’t surprise me.

Plus, Luke Schenn is a stay-at-home defenseman with poor puck possession skills, while JVR is a power winger who can skate with 35 goal/year potential.  Which one of those skill sets is more valuable?  I think the Flyers are gonna regret this one, especially since they have so much trouble scoring.

Odds: 75%

That the Flyers end the month with a winning record?

As of Feb 12, they have 9 games left this month and are 5-7-1.  They play 4 at home and 5 on the road and those 5 road games are all in one brutal stretch that features trips to Winnipeg, New Jersey, Montreal, and Pittsburgh.  They need to go 7-2 and I just don’t see that happening.  I’ll be happy with 5-4, or 4 wins and some OT/shootout losses. Just get points.

Odds: 10%

Posted on February 14, 2013, in Flyers, Posts, Vince Quinn and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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