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Flyers on the Streit and Narrow Minded
via thestar.com
The Flyers traded today for the rights of Islanders’ defenseman Mark Streit. Streit, 35, has been the Islanders’ captain over the last few years and was previously negotiating with the Isles prior to the trade. In exchange for Streit’s rights, the Flyers gave up right wing Shane Harper and the 4th round pick in the 2014 draft. In other words, not much.
The Flyers will now have exclusive negotiating rights with Streit until July 5th. If they can’t reach an agreement by that point, Streit will be able to field offers from anyone.
Streit could be a much needed addition for this team which has struggled with injuries, offensive production, and, well, defending. If you project Streit’s 2012-13 numbers over an 82 game season he’s averaged nearly 10 goals and 34 assists a year over his seven year career. (He was out for the entirety of the 2010-2011 season) Also, for those of you who love advanced stats, you can check out Streit’s numbers here, which are solid but not spectacular.
The big question right now then is: what will it cost to make him a Flyer?
Figuring out why Braydon Coburn was so bad in 2013 (with advanced stats!)
Image via Wikipedia Commons
Braydon Coburn has long been considered a solid, consistent defender and has been a fixture on the Flyers’ top-two defensive pairings since he was acquired at the 2007 trade deadline. So consistent, in fact, that during the 2011-12 season, the Flyers jumped at the chance to extend his contract for 4 years at a healthy $4.5 million-per-year price tag. Hardly a small commitment for a team that is perennially bumping its head against the salary cap.
But Coburn’s 2013 season was – and I’m being kind here – a break from the mold.
Oh who am I kidding? It was awful. In order to set up the second half of my analysis, I’ll spend the first half explaining just how awful it was.
Here is a quick recap of Coburn’s career in terms of the standard statistics:
WARNING: Minors, the elderly, and those living with a heart condition may wish to avert their eyes from the row marked ’2013′
| Scoring Stats | Goals | Assists | Ice Time | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Age | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | EV | PP | SH | EV | SH | PP | S | S% | ATOI |
| 2006-07 | 21 | 49 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 46 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 54 | 5.6 | 15:29 |
| 2007-08 | 22 | 78 | 9 | 27 | 36 | 17 | 74 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 113 | 8.0 | 21:14 |
| 2008-09 | 23 | 80 | 7 | 21 | 28 | 7 | 97 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 130 | 5.4 | 24:37 |
| 2009-10 | 24 | 81 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -6 | 54 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 122 | 4.1 | 21:08 |
| 2010-11 | 25 | 82 | 2 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 53 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 114 | 1.8 | 21:04 |
| 2011-12 | 26 | 81 | 4 | 20 | 24 | 10 | 56 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 113 | 3.5 | 22:03 |
| 2013 | 27 | 33 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 2.6 | 22:37 |
| Career | 493 | 31 | 109 | 140 | 30 | 425 | 21 | 10 | 0 | 79 | 6 | 24 | 688 | 4.5 | 21:09 | |
Generated 5/17/2013.
Those numbers look bad. Really bad. But the season was shortened to start and Coburn was on the DL for 1/3 of those games, so it may help to break down his 2013 stats in terms of ice time.
Stats per 60 minutes of ice time (with career rank):
Goals/60: .08 (2nd worst)
Assists/60: .322 (worst)
Points/60: .402 (worst)
Plus-Minus/60: -.804 (worst)
PIM/60: 3.3 (2nd worst)
Shots/60: 3.06 (worst)
Even Strength Points/60: .402 (worst)
Yuck. How about a nail in the coffin? In the 33 games in which Coburn played, the Flyers went 13-17-3, averaged 2.64 goals for and 3.12 goals against. In the 15 games in which Coburn did not appear, the Flyers were 10-5-0, averaging 3.07 goals for and 2.53 goals against.
Now, I already trashed Coburn’s lockout season a month ago, but I swear I’m really not trying to pile it on. I am simply attempting to provide some perspective. I went into this study because I was genuinely baffled that such a dependable player could just roll over and die at the prime age of 28. How was this possible? Outside of my private suspicions that Dan Bylsma spent his off-hours poking needles into a Braydon voodoo doll somewhere in the bowels of the CONSOL Energy Center, there was seemingly no explanation for such a precipitous fall…
Unless, of course, you like advanced stats. I’ve recently shown my ardent support for the proliferation of advanced statistics, and this seemed like a ripe opportunity to break them out. As it turns out, the fancy numbers indicate that it wasn’t simply poor luck or bad mojo that led to Coburn’s bad year.
There was another reason:
Peter Laviolette.
Around the Cooler 04/19/13 – Collins, the NFL draft, and hockey purgatory
Here’s what we’re talking about:
Doug Collins is out, Ransom has many opinions (02:00)
Merry Draftmas! Who will Howie Roseman leave under our tree? (17:00)
Is there any reason to keep watching the Flyers? (33:00)
Play on your Mobile Device or Right Click to Download: Around the Cooler 04-19-13
What are you talking about around the water cooler this week? Leave us a comment!
Follow us on Twitter @TheWooderCooler
A Vulgar, Bitter, and Disrespectful Obituary for the 2013 Flyers
Last Tuesday when the Orange-and-Black traveled to the crumbling Coliseum to face the Blue-and-Orange, it was the Bullies who came away black and blue. That all-but season-ending loss to the Islanders led many local and national hockey writers to cut bait on this no-good, very-bad, lockout-shortened, overpaid, oft-injured, ineffective, unlucky, uncoordinated, ungainly, uninspiring team.
Hell if I’m going to miss out on the fun!
The Flyers are now many points back with few games to go, and just wrapped up their fourth loss in a row. They currently have a 1 in 625 chance of getting the 8th playoff seed.
What the puck happened?! Damn near this exact same team earned 103 points last season! They were +32! They pummeled the Pens in the playoffs! They have the best player in the world! How could everything fall so heels-over-ass apart?
“Maybe more Mike Knuble will fix this?”
Image via prohockeytalk.com // AP
Let’s take it back to the summer. Read the rest of this entry
Around the Cooler 04/11/13 – Philly goes four-for-four… at missing the playoffs
Here’s what we’re talking about:
Hey! It’s baseball season! (02:00)
BRYZASTER 2: THE SLEEPENING (16:00)
Doug Collins is getting a not-so-subtle push out the door (23:30)
Play on your Mobile Device or Right Click to Download: Around the Cooler 04-11-13
What are you talking about around the water cooler this week? Leave us a comment!
Follow us on Twitter @TheWooderCooler
Around the Cooler 04/08/13 – All Flyers: How do things look with 10 games left?
Here’s what we’re talking about:
Vince, Nick, and Hank discuss why the Flyers are playing better lately, the questionable usage of Sean Couturier, recent player acquisitions and call-ups, and whether it’s too late for this team to make a playoff run.
Play on your Mobile Device or Right Click to Download: Around the Cooler 04-08-13
What are you talking about around the water cooler this week? Leave us a comment!
Follow us on Twitter @TheWooderCooler
Briere “Out Indefinitely” with Concussion
Uh oh, where have we seen this before?
Sam Carchidi reports that Briere failed to finish Friday’s practice after crashing hard into the boards, and he has been sidelined indefinitely with a concussion. Nick Grossman is also out with the ever-informative “upper body injury” designation.
It’s a tough break for the 4-time 30 goal scorer, who was already having a terrible run this season and was just demoted to the 3rd line. The injury effectively kills any chance for the Flyers to trade Briere (and his $6.5 million-per-season salary) to a playoff contender before the NHL trade deadline in 9 days. Read the rest of this entry
Laviolette demotes Briere at practice, promotes Read
Image via Zimbio.com
Ugh, it’s about time.
Sam Carchidi of the Inquirer reported that at Friday’s practice, Danny Briere had been demoted from the second line to the third, paired with Scott Hartnell and Max Talbot. Matt Read was promoted to the top line. I’m praying that this change carries over to the starting lineup on Sunday against the Penguins. Despite the terrible fact that the average yearly salary of the three forwards on the third line would would be $4.15 million, this change should have been made a month ago.
In Laviolette’s defense, the delay is somewhat understandable: Despite netting a mere 5 goals in 26 games, Briere’s been getting about 2.6 shots per game on net, which is roughly in line with his career average, and he’s suffering from the worst shooting percentage of his career (7.8%, half his 14.8% career average). So there’s some bad luck involved on the offensive end.
But Briere, who always carried a reputation as a bit of a defensive liability, has recently become such a problem in 5v5 play that his time on the ice is doing more damage than good. Opposing teams consistently take more shots than the Flyers while he is on the ice (his Corsi rating is -5.57 despite facing mediocre opposing lines). If Briere were paired with two possession-driving players this might be surmountable, but pair him with Wayne Simmonds – who has similar issues (-2.06 Corsi) but provides a physicality that cements his spot on the 2nd line – and you have a recipe for failure. Brayden Schenn is good, but he’s not good enough to make up for the defensive deficiencies of both linemates. (Learn about Corsi here, stats via behindthenet.ca)
Around the Cooler 03/22/13 – Weekly Recap
Here’s what we’re talking about:
Phillies: Roy-pocalypse and Total Dom-ination (2:00)
Flyers: Is making a trade at the deadline a smart move? (17:30)
Eagles: We talk more Eagles offseason, Vince has a crush on Chip Kelly (30:00)
Play:
Right Click for Download: Around the Cooler 03-22-13
What are you talking about around the water cooler this week? Leave us a comment!
Four for Four with 3D Philly Sports
With all of the four major teams currently active, I decided to chat with Derrick Alvarez of 3D Philly Sports to discuss some of the big questions hanging over Broad and Pattison. Here’s the results:
1. Who should the Eagles draft at #4?
Derrick: Right now I’m leaning towards Dee Milliner. Had the Eagles signed Sean Smith in free agency I wouldn’t be so adamant about them drafting this stud cornerback out of Alabama, but I’m not entirely too sure that the Brandon Boykin/Cary Williams/Brandon Fletcher combo is the answer at cornerback here in Philly. Would I ruin my argument though by saying that only 8 cornerbacks have been drafted in the top ten since 2000 and that Milliner is going to be out with a shoulder injury until training camp? Ah screw it, I’m thinking long term here.
Vince: For me, it has to be Dee Millner. The kid is physical, can succesfully jam receivers at the line, and can tackle very well. If the Eagles are serious about getting the best player available he’ll likely be it at #4. The NFC East has some high-quality wide receiving tandems (Nicks and Cruz have left me with many sleepless nights) and with the RG III and the read option in D.C., efficient tackling on the outside is a must. Millner can help in both departments and has the measurables that scouts look for in a corner. Welcome to Philly, Dee.
2. Are the Phillies too old to compete for a title?
